Vegas scrolls odds

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 8 posts archived

thread starter myrdrex Jun 30 2010 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I've seen a lot of threads today about people excitedly "finishing off" their endgame weapons, or trying to scroll some sweet 18 attack work gloves. I'm all for that, I'd like to see some cool new items hit the marketplace. However, I can't help but feel that a lot of people are overestimating how likely 90% scrolls are when you're starting with a 'clean' item. To to make sure you have all the facts, I wanted to make sure people understood the odds of getting all 9 scrolls (or 8 of 9) to work on a BWG or Weapon. It's nowhere close to 100%. It's nowhere close to 90%! Here's the odds of using vegas scrolls on a 9 slot item: Getting All 9 Scrolls work = 38.74% Getting at least 8 scrolls to work = 77.48% Getting at least 7 scrolls to work = 94.71% Getting at least 6 scrolls to work = effectively a 100% chance (99.1%) Here's the odds of using vegas scrolls on a 7 slot item: Getting All 7 Scrolls work = 47.83% Getting at least 6 scrolls to work = 85.03% Getting at least 5 scrolls to work = 97.43% Getting at least 4 scrolls to work = effectively a 100% chance (99.7%) So, you can see there's actually a good chance that you'll end up getting only 8 out of 9 of your scrolls working. Of course starting with a successfully scrolled item helps a LOT. If you already have brown work gloves that are +4 atk with 7 slots left, then your odds of ending with a perfect BWG is 47.83% instead of 38.74%. If you're wondering how it's calculated, it's simply applying the formulas associated with Binomial Distributions. The probability of getting EXACTLY K successes in N trials that have a Success rate of P is: Probability of success = n!/k!(n-k)! * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)

My Characters: ulgarbosnot - 50 Scania Aran in Memory

mpham13 06/30/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

SCHOOL IS BACK ALREADY? OT: People feel a lot better using a 90% then 60% to finish/make a item.

My Characters: touchmyship - 149 Bera Corsair

SeEkeRxKiD 06/30/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Let people burn their money and let it fail and let then rage on basil

My Characters: KraziiStabs - 120 Broa Shadower

perbely 06/30/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

You can still fail all 9 or pass all 9. That's just another example of useless math.

My Characters: perbely - 145 Scania Bishop

Colocopetos 06/30/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Wow, no wonder I failed the 90% glove att scroll TWICE on both my 13 att 1ham'd Stormcasters. =/

My Characters: BossFrost - 80 Bera Aran in Misery

GinSaan 06/30/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I would feel bad for whoever fails more than two 90% scrolls

My Characters: xBloodEmblem - 130 Scania I/L Arch Mage

MagicUpChuck + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

uh you did your maths wrong. scratch that they fine. i thought you were presenting a progression of 100% scrolling up the slots limit but you weren't. oh and the peeps finishing off perfect items i hope ws and 30% vega.

My Characters: lmCharginLzr - 34 Bera Page

myrdrex + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] perbely : You can still fail all 9 or pass all 9. That's just another example of useless math. [/quote] Yes, but some people like to know the odds. I actually heard one of our more useless politicians once answer a question about probability. He said "Well, it will either happen, or it won't, so it's 50-50". I love that answer, it couldn't possibly be more wrong! That's like saying "Well, I'll either win the lottery, or I won't, so it's a 50% chance of winning!". Man, if only it worked that way.

My Characters: ulgarbosnot - 50 Scania Aran in Memory