Attack Work Gloves;

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 15 posts archived

thread starter SlaTerra May 16 2010 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

So guys, here is something I have been wondering, IS IT OR IS IT NOT WORTH IT to scroll "Perfect Wg's"; 10 ATT U/H, and sell? WIll you make an okay profit? Is it high risk?

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BoxWoman 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

For one, those aren't "perfect"; perfect would be 5/5 or 7/7 10/30% scrolls working (depends on the work glove). If you're lucky, yes you'd make a decent profit. However, the risk of scrolling is quite high; the only way you could make a pretty decent profit would be by scrolling a 10+ attack glove. 8 attacks will only have you coming out even. The chances of scrolling 10 attack work gloves consistently isn't very high, so I wouldn't recommend doing it.

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PricelessName 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

60% per slot. means on avg, 3/5 will work .07776% chance all 5 will work consecutively.

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djp2313 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Like the person 2 above me said -- 8 attks make yo break even figure thats landing 4/5 -- or an 80% success rate and the scrolls have a 60% success rate -- not hard to see how scrolling usually winds up with you losing money @above -- move the decimal place 2 to the right when you make it a percent --

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litovietboy93 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Nvm, forget what i said.

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elscorcho9 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

work glove, 100k gfa 6m each x (.6)^7=2% all 60%'s will work. (according my math). If you think the odds are in your favor, go ahead. I myself wouldn't, but I'm piss poor. EDIT: whoops, just saw i was doing bwg. change 7 to 5. 7% chance. Still pretty bad.

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LaDoufu 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] PricelessName : 60% per slot. means on avg, 3/5 will work .07776% chance all 5 will work consecutively. [/quote] 60% chance per scroll does not mean that 60% of all scrolls he uses will work The binomial distribution of 3 successes in 5 comes out to be .3456, or 34.56%, a lot different than "on average, 3/5"

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SlaTerra 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

So, if I do scroll a 5/5 WG, how much profit will I make?

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Crushinator + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] LaDoufu : 60% chance per scroll does not mean that 60% of all scrolls he uses will work The binomial distribution of 3 successes in 5 comes out to be .3456, or 34.56%, a lot different than "on average, 3/5" [/quote] Actually, it does. Please do more statistic homework. n=5, p=0.6. expected value = 3. edit: if you do make a 10 att wg with 5 60% scrolls, you'll make approximately 50mil profit. cost of making the glove (scrolling it 5 times) is 30mil.

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Sumbudy 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

This game is supposed to be fun! Stop ruining it with your confusing math sciencey calcuation thingies! XD jk.

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LaDoufu 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] Crushinator : Actually, it does. Please do more statistic homework. n=5, p=0.6. expected value = 3. [/quote] You can even go to this thread to check.. http://www.basilmarket.com/forum/810939#22016951 Binomial distribution and expected value are two different things Binomial distribution is used to determine the probability of n successes out of k trials, which would be relevant to this situation. Expected value is sum of the values multiplied by their respective probability of occurrence, basically your net gain or loss after infinite trials.

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megamerchant 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

70% twice: almost 50% chance they'll both work over 70% chance they wont break

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12345nz67890 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] Crushinator : Actually, it does. Please do more statistic homework. n=5, p=0.6. expected value = 3. edit: if you do make a 10 att wg with 5 60% scrolls, you'll make approximately 50mil profit. cost of making the glove (scrolling it 5 times) is 30mil. [/quote] Actually, it doesn't. However the more scrolls he use, statistically the % of success will get nearer and nearer to 60%. It is incorrect to say that if he uses 5 scrolls, 3 will work. However, you are right about expected value being 3. This doesn't necessarily mean that the outcome will be 3 successes out of 5 trials. And above poster is right, the probability of 3 working out of 5 is 34.56% according to the binomial distribution. EDIT: [quote] LaDoufu : You can even go to this thread to check.. http://www.basilmarket.com/forum/810939#22016951 Binomial distribution and expected value are two different things Binomial distribution is used to determine the probability of n successes out of k trials, which would be relevant to this situation. Expected value is sum of the values multiplied by their respective probability of occurrence, basically your net gain or loss after infinite trials. [/quote] D= Ninja'd by him. He pretty much summed it up.

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iplayms 05/16/10 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

With the perfect scrolling algorithm (optimized for profit) you are still losing a couple M's per glove. Work glove scrolling is best reserved for... well let's just say, other people xD

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Crushinator + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote] LaDoufu : You can even go to this thread to check.. http://www.basilmarket.com/forum/810939#22016951 Binomial distribution and expected value are two different things Binomial distribution is used to determine the probability of n successes out of k trials, which would be relevant to this situation. Expected value is sum of the values multiplied by their respective probability of occurrence, basically your net gain or loss after infinite trials. [/quote] As a third year university student in Economics, I can assure you I know what Binomial Distribution is. However, what you calculated is the chance of landing exactly 3 scrolls out of 5. Which is not the case here! The person he quoted was merely saying "on avg, 3/5 will work", which is what EXPECTED value means. Sure, the thread starter should be interested in the probability of 5 successes out of 5 trails, however, that is not what LaDoufu quoted on. I am merely pointing out the fact that PricelessName was not wrong in stating 60% scrolls means on average , 60% of the 60% scrolls work.

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