Chaos Scroll Hunting

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 15 posts archived

thread starter JunSama Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I've been seeing a thread or two every few days about people asking or posting about never finding one, or saying they can find one easily. Here's my theory: Drop Rate is one big pool, with a time interval. Regular items like potions, etc, and what not, have their own pool of probability that's pre-determined once the monster spawns. Items like equips, scrolls, and rare crap have their own chance that's guaranteed by the map. As in, every so often, a monster in the map is GUARANTEED to have a drop. It could be an ore... it could be an equip... it could be a chaos scroll... I don't know what the time-frame for it would be, nor do I under stand all the tiny calculations. It's just my theory. So, the point is: If you grind for hours at a map, you're guaranteed to find SOMETHING. Not a chaos scroll, or the equip you're hunting for, or the scroll, or whatever is it you're looking for. You're guaranteed to find SOMETHING. That's it. That's why some people can find one in 10 minutes without even planning to, and others can't find their item even after a month of hunting. There's no guarantee for the item you're look for... Just an item or some sort. It's like playing Roulette every 5-10minutes, but the circle has spaces that are bigger then others. And, some spaces are as thin as a chopstick. EDIT: If Drop rate were to increase, it'd be like Roulette with more balls. So, if you go on a plan to hunt for something rare, you can't expect to find one in a certain time-frame, EVER. Just hope you get lucky...

spear4789876 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

nicely put, but usually within 10 hours of grinding people usually find what they're looking for, unless they're really unlucky...

JunSama Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

spear4789876 : nicely put, but usually within 10 hours of grinding people usually find what they're looking for, unless they're really unlucky... Then you go find a chaos scroll... Putting a number does not work for rare items. Your concept only works on common items that are valued under 5m. It just doesn't happen, unless they're lucky. ONLY lucky. In other words, your thoughts don't apply to this.

DELMERVIS 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

spear4789876 : nicely put, but usually within 10 hours of grinding people usually find what they're looking for, unless they're really unlucky... i have seen people grind fro hours and not get wat they are looking for

YueRiku Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

My theory is that its like wheel of fortune except that etc drops and mesos take like 99% of the wheel. And then theres like this mini wheel inside each slice that rolls again for multiple drops!

OhhShaa Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

spear4789876 : nicely put, but usually within 10 hours of grinding people usually find what they're looking for, unless they're really unlucky... That is depending on how many equips, scrolls, etc. the specific monster has. As for Drum bunnies (popular chaos scroll monster), there are a lot of equips that can be dropped. Making the chance of a Chaos Scroll drop lower. YueRiku : My theory is that its like wheel of fortune except that etc drops and mesos take like 99% of the wheel. And then theres like this mini wheel inside each slice that rolls again for multiple drops! Oooh that's like how rare items in Runescape are dropped.

LolMagenta Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Have you ever hosted your own server? I might be wrong because the servers might work differently, but most likely they work the same. The main point of your theory was the time frame thing. That is untrue. For each monster, there is a whole table of data for each item it can drop. For each item there is a number assigned to tell the server how often to drop it. That number changes the probability of the item dropping. And just for reference, there is no limit to the number of items that can be dropped from a monster, but most of the time it is small due to the number that changes the probability of drop rate. That's why on like 1000x drop rate servers a million items will drop from one monster because the drop rate multiplier multiplies that probability number. Now whether the probability and items that are going to drpo are calculated at the time the server spawns the monster, or at the time the monster is killed, is debatable. Other items that drop from a monster do not have an effect on the probability of other items being dropped for reasons stated above.

dilsl Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Look I just used 2X drop at bunnies. I received this blue steal(female) so MANY TIMES!and also recived this brown clothing which i stopped looting. other equips dropped, but not as common as those two. oh and broadsword dropped loads too. I got one chaos scroll though, and 25 dark crystal ores. No whips But the drops do not have the same chance of dropping. Some things drop a lot, some don't, like SE 20 from sharks. EDIT EDIT EDIT: I USED 2X DROP! Not 4x. and I got my chaos in 2 hours and 15 mins of non-intensive farming, leaving the room every once in a while for agent badge quest, and talking...

DELMERVIS 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Junkiri where did u train at lvl 100? OT: i agree with LolMagenta because she sounds smart

one23abc Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

[quote=]So, if you go on a plan to hunt for something rare, you can't expect to find one in a certain time-frame, EVER.[/quote] Well if training for 8 minutes, your 8 times more likely to find a chaos scroll than someone training for 1 min. So expect to be 8 times more likely to find a chaos scroll than the person training for 1 min

AzureKite 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I got mine at cube slimes in 30 minutes. But, I've also spent 10 hours searching again to not find another one. But, I'm still hunting. It's just dedication. You get rewarded in the end.

PiratesGold Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

its based on luck. Sell you soul, and maybe youll get it 10 mins.

JunSama Jul 20 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

LolMagenta : Have you ever hosted your own server? I might be wrong because the servers might work differently, but most likely they work the same. The main point of your theory was the time frame thing. That is untrue. For each monster, there is a whole table of data for each item it can drop. For each item there is a number assigned to tell the server how often to drop it. That number changes the probability of the item dropping. And just for reference, there is no limit to the number of items that can be dropped from a monster, but most of the time it is limited due to the number that changes the probability of drop rate. That's why on like 1000x drop rate servers a million items will drop from one monster because the drop rate multiplier multiplies that probability number. Now whether the probability and items that are going to drpo are calculated at the time the server spawns the monster, or at the time the monster is killed, is debatable. Other items that drop from a monster do not have an effect on the probability of other items being dropped for reasons stated above. You just proved by time frame theory. The probabilities of monster drops creates that time frame, it's not stated. Also, of course, putting 100x Drop rate, would mean giving items repeated chances, forcing eahc monster to drop more and more and more. Also, monster drops are calculated upon spawn, proven by the Bandit skill "Steal," which shows monster drops are pre-determined, not created upon death. Putting 1000x Drop rate is basically increasing the size of the Roulette board, and throwing more balls into play, and spinning it more times per turn.

winterfresh 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

How come we never see 2 scrolls or equips dropping from one monster? I think drop rate is more complex than 1/x chance of getting something.

asfgen4 07/20/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

no i used to hunt for steelys and i got about 23 of them at fire drake.... back then steely worth 10m each