A Better Guide to Your Chances of Scrolling Success

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 15 posts archived

thread starter WesW Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Introduction With all due respect to charismatic and his thread , it is not a "Complete Scrolling Guide and Reference". While his guide is technically accurate, it is not as useful, or as complete, as it might be. For example, let's say I want to scroll an item with 7 slots open on it, and I'm considering using 60% scrolls, what are my odds that I can get 4 to work? Looking at his guide you come up with an answer of 29%. While technically correct*, it is NOT the answer I am looking for, or the one I need, the answer I need is "What are the odds that at least 4 of my 60% scrolls will work?". Given the information he has in his thread, there is no way to really determine this. In my charts, the percentages given are your chances of getting at least that many successful scrolls out of that number of attempts. For my example above you would find this under the listing for 60% scrolls: 7 Tries Chance at least 4 will pass is 71.02% *His answer is the exact odds of getting only 4 scrolls to work, and doesn't account for the possibility of getting more than 4. 70% Scrolls 1 Try - Chance of Blowing it Up is 15.00%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 70.00%, 2 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 27.25%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 91.00% Chance at least 2 will pass is 49.00% 3 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 38.59%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 97.30% Chance at least 2 will pass is 78.40% Chance at least 3 will pass is 34.30% 4 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 47.80%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 99.19% Chance at least 2 will pass is 91.63% Chance at least 3 will pass is 65.17% Chance at least 4 will pass is 24.01% 5 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 55.63%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 99.76% Chance at least 2 will pass is 96.92% Chance at least 3 will pass is 83.69% Chance at least 4 will pass is 52.82% Chance at least 5 will pass is 16.81% 6 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 62.29%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 99.93% Chance at least 2 will pass is 98.91% Chance at least 3 will pass is 92.95% Chance at least 4 will pass is 74.43% Chance at least 5 will pass is 42.04% Chance at least 6 will pass is 11.76% 7 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 67.94%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 99.98% Chance at least 2 will pass is 99.62% Chance at least 3 will pass is 97.12% Chance at least 4 will pass is 87.40% Chance at least 5 will pass is 64.71% Chance at least 6 will pass is 32.94% Chance at least 7 will pass is 08.24% 8 Tries - Chance of Blowing it Up is 72.75%, if it doesn't Blow Up, then..... Chance at least 1 will pass is 99.99% Chance at least 2 will pass is 99.87% Chance at least 3 will pass is 98.87% Chance at least 4 will pass is 94.20% Chance at least 5 will pass is 80.59% Chance at least 6 will pass is 55.18% Chan

chakratos 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I thought it's all about luck.

WesW 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

chakratos said: "I thought it's all about luck." And that's why Vegas makes billions of dollars a year. The probabilities don't care about "luck". If you are going to be a serious scroller, you need to understand what the probabilities are, and what they mean to you. Hopefully this thread will help with that.

brentonk Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

For 10%s, why is the probably of hitting 1/1 higher than hitting 1/2? EDIT: 10% chance of hititng 1 scroll on 1 slot. 9% chance of hititng 1+ on 2 slots? what? This must be wrong, or I'm missing something.

Lolance 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Nice guide, thanks. :D

Awsomoo 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

So many numbers!

iAsianSage 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Very nice! Sticky!

InHerArms Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I've calculated the chances of using 2 chaos scrolls in a row (it's a chanecs of IF YOU SUCSEED so if you want to make this realistic for 60% chaos scrolls just double it by 0.6) Chances for no change: 9.9999% Chances for +/-1: 9.0909% Chances for +/-2: 7.4380% Chances for +/-3: 7.2727% Chances for +/-4: 6.3636% Chances for +/-5: 5.4545% Chances for +/-6: 4.5454% Chances for +/-7: 3.6363% Chances for +/-8: 2.7272% Chances for +/-9: 1.8181% Chances for +/-10: 0.0826%

OnAir Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

chakratos said: "I thought it's all about luck." Quoted from someone on that other thread..."What people call luck, mathematicians call probability and statistics" Edit: Good Guide :D

brentonk 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

InHerArms said: "I've calculated the chances of using 2 chaos scrolls in a row (it's a chanecs of IF YOU SUCSEED so if you want to make this realistic for 60% scrolls just divide the % by 100 and double it by 0.6 then double it by 100 and u get the %) Chances for no change: 9.9999% Chances for +/-1: 9.0909% Chances for +/-2: 7.4380% Chances for +/-3: 7.2727% Chances for +/-4: 6.3636% Chances for +/-5: 5.4545% Chances for +/-6: 4.5454% Chances for +/-7: 3.6363% Chances for +/-8: 2.7272% Chances for +/-9: 1.8181% Chances for +/-10: 0.0826%" Something tells me this is terribly wrong.

WhyPlayMaple 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

This is a really nice guide. This needs to be stickied

InHerArms Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

brentonk said: " Something tells me this is terribly wrong." No programs used, and altough I've got a test about it tommarow I might be wrong, test it if you'd like if but if you don't check, please don't diss

WesW Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

brentonk said: "For 10%s, why is the probably of hitting 1/1 higher than hitting 1/2? EDIT: 10% chance of hititng 1 scroll on 1 slot. 9% chance of hititng 1+ on 2 slots? what? This must be wrong, or I'm missing something." I probably screwed it up, lol, it was a lot of math, I'll double check it, thanks for pointing it out. {Edit} I goofed, it's been corrected, and thanks again for catching that.

brentonk Jul 13 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

InHerArms said: " No programs used, and altough I've got a test about it tommarow I might be wrong, test it if you'd like if but if you don't check, please don't diss" Well, as far as my knowledge goes, a Chaos Scroll alters the item for better or worse at a positive or negative maximum of 5 stats. Wow, I just failed at trying to sound smart. Wes, very good guide. If I see any other mistakes, I'll let you know :D! InHerArms - I didn't mean it as a diss, It may be correct but Im 99% sure it maxes out at 5. I'm sorry for being a bit harsh

Tkboiz 07/13/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

You need luck for scrolling, so go make a sin. f3