Update on nub who failed three gen 20 skillbooks

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 14 posts archived

thread starter mitun733 Jun 28 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I PASSED MY 4TH!1 WOOOT. A few people asked that i post when i used my next one so i did xd. BEAT THAT 1.4% CHANCE OF FAILING FOUR CONSECUTIVE BOOKS WOOOOOOOOT.

sin4life 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

lol gratz

DrHavoc 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Lol, congrats. 8D

RedLobsta 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Haha you failed 3 books.

Crosby0 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

NO NOT 1.4% ITS 70% EACH TIME. geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze the odds do not stack up its a 70% chance each time.

Elrond Jun 28 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Odds that you take four books and fail them at a 70% success rate is = 0.0081 o.0 Three's 0.027. How'd you get 1.4?

evilkaz 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I'll stick to my passing 1st time thanks. But grats anyway!

grantwall 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

While it technically does not stack and change in game, the odds do change. This is very much as flipping a coin and having it land on heads 3 times in a row, the odds are still 50:50 on the coin toss, but based on previous results, a tails is more probable.

xshade25x 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

the odds of u failing the 3 genesis books were the same as u scrolling succesfully with 3 30% (i think)

Elrond 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

grantwall said: "but based on previous results, a tails is more probable." NO. NO NO NO NO NO! WHERE DO YOU LEARN THESE LIES? ._. What has already happened DOES NOT AFFECT future trials.

Ryuenjin1 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Gamblers Fallacy makes me smile....

EmilySmemily 06/28/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Elrond said: " NO. NO NO NO NO NO! WHERE DO YOU LEARN THESE LIES? ._. What has already happened DOES NOT AFFECT future trials." He's saying the probability of getting three fails in a row is lower, not that each scroll is lower.

MatTruck Jun 28 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

this is how it goes! if he failed three there are outcomes.... here it is the first one would be 7/10 favorable outcomes for the scroll and 3/10 unfavorable outcoms. that means the following is the correct equation: 3/10 x 3/10 x 3/10 = 27/1000, those are the chances of him failing three in a row. EDIT: the chances of failing four is: 3/10 x 3/10 x 3/10 x 3/10 = 81/10000 the chances of failing three and passing the fourth is: 3/10 x 3/10 x 3/10 x 7/10 so stick that in your juicebox and suck it.

Elrond Jun 28 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

EmilySmemily said: " He's saying the probability of getting three fails in a row is lower, not that each scroll is lower." Read the part I quoted. "tails is more probable". That's the part that bugs me. @previous post. Fractions for something like that SUCK. .7 = chance of good .3 = chance of bad .3^3 = failing three times .3^3*.7= odds that he'll pass his four try. (Cuz he won't continue after one works)