Dummy scrolling

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 15 posts archived

thread starter AlternateTRUTH Jun 11 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Many people have said it does t work. Why? They claim each scroll has an independent chance of failing, and is not affected by the previous outcome. However, when it comes to a different issue, such as the chance of x amount of scrolls passing in a row, they now claim that the chance should be %^number of scrolls. Which is dependent on the last scroll's outcome. I ask you to explain this logic to me.

nighteye 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I think it's you have a 60% chance of scroll 1 working. Then, for both scroll 1 and 2 to work, you have a 60%x60% chance....The scrolls' percentages ar estill independent

inuman2006 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Each scroll has it's own outcome. Picture a pie and x% of the pie is fail and y% of the pie is success.

mimomuffin 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Yeah i've been wondering this same issue too.

FireArrow125 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I've done that before and I have to say it HAS worked. (but it was only once) I failed approx. 20 10% scroll for def in a row Then I landed a 10% shoes jump on my shoes. I guess it was luck .__.

DefaultHero 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

each time you scroll the % of it gets like idk how to put but lets just say" refreshed". so if you dummy its not gonna raise the chance.

Solafo 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

inuman2006 said: "Each scroll has it's own outcome. Picture a pie and x% of the pie is fail and y% of the pie is success." There's also an alternate pie that comes out when it fails with a Dark scroll. Like x% of blowing up and y% of surviving.

ryuugaki 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

It doesn't work. Anyone who says it works hasn't taken basic statistics. Each scroll is entirely independent of each other. There's an overall chance that, say, 6 out of 10 scrolls will work for 60%s, but that in no way means that if you've failed 9, your next scroll is any more likely.

M4xed 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

>.> I can't believe this is an arguement. It's not an opinion, dummy scrolling doesn't work. Learn basic math.

Sinboxx03 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Wow. Dummy scrolling does NOT work. If a scroll before a 10% fails, the 10% doesn't have a higher chance of working. it doesn't work that way. Each 10% has a 10% chance of working.

NotAwesome Jun 11 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Scrolls are an independent event. The %^number is the theoretical probability that many will succeed in a row.

TheGale 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Probability can be used to predict outcomes. It does not determine outcomes.

pkim44 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

it doesnt work but it IS a good method for scrolling.

xpedia 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

It doesn't work. I mean, just think of a simple case like flipping a coin. Lets say the 1st time you flip and it lands on heads. It's a 50/50 chance so according to dummy scrolling, the next one would have to be tails. But everybody knows this just isn't true. You've still got a 50/50 chance regardless what happened before.

teopo 06/11/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Dummy scrolling cant and will not work for 1 simple fact and that is that in c++ and various other programming languages the randomization equation is based on the system time which is however many milliseconds has passed in the kernel. So in theory to get every 10% scroll u use to work u would have to figure out the equation for randomization and then use it to figure out all the possible number of milliseconds has to pass to make the scroll pass then it would simplify things to have a program that displays the GetTickCount API so u would know the current system time....virtually making it impossible to get any % scroll to pass all the time. In one of my software engineering courses we had to learn how the randomization works and how it can b abused by some people such as the guy who figured out a casinos randomization equation and made millions off the casino by abusing it......