Scrolling Probability 2

basilmarket.com forums : General Maple Story | 15 posts archived

thread starter CheckIn2Rehab Apr 30 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Ok well I tried this last time but I guess if I don't spell it out for you, you guys aren't able to understand: To those who say "Burn Scrolling (Failing a scroll to make the next scroll work) doesn't work, all scrolls are set at a percentage" My question to you is, Why? Think about it, if each scroll had a 10% chance of working, then shouldn't you have a 10% chance of landing 10? Because if probability wasn't involved (which burn scrolling is based upon), You'd add fractions, not multiply them. 1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10=10/100=1/10. To those last time who flamed me for saying "LOL NOOB YOU MULTIPLY NOT ADD" That's what i'm saying! Because probability DOES come into play, then shouldn't failing a 60% scroll mean the next 60% should work at a higher percentage? Think about it like this. The scroll has a 40% Chance of failing. If you fail it, what's the chance it'll fail again. .40x.40=.16=16% Which means shouldn't your next 60% scroll have a 84% chance of working? Discuss

jebberdoo 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

O.O Wut...... You only multiply to see the probability that a number of scrolls will work in succession. A single 10% scroll will always work 1/10 of the time. 2 10% scrolls will work 1/100 of the time and so on and so on. The bottom part is just so messed up that i'd rather not read it again and try to figure it out.

theotherday 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

because 16% is the percent that 2 scrolls fail, youre forgetting the "if one scroll works and the other doesnt" and u dont know how to add fractions 1/10 + 1/10 = 2/10 *sigh* stupid 3rd graders playing ms nowadays

Wheeeeeeeeeeeee 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10+1/10 =/= 1/10 or 10/100 bro (<----same thing i know don't say anything =_=) learn math

jaesang0 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

it's called bait scrolling and yea it works i got 4 30% helm accs to work on my blue dana before blowing it up w/ a 70% 0.o lol shoulda bait scrolled 70% too (takes too long, only worth it for 30%)

GrayIcey 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

I don't think that's right. The Math is kinda wrong.

tugboats 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

CheckIn2Rehab said: " Because probability DOES come into play, then shouldn't failing a 60% scroll mean the next 60% should work at a higher percentage? Think about it like this. The scroll has a 40% Chance of failing. If you fail it, what's the chance it'll fail again. .40x.40=.16=16% Which means shouldn't your next 60% scroll have a 84% chance of working? " The probability of 3 60% failing in a row is 16%, however these are independent events. Failing many scrolls in a row does not increase the actual chance of passing the next one. It is only the % chance of a certain event, it is not an accurate prediction at all. I have failed 3 30%s, 6 70%s, and a 10% in a row, which would be a 0.014% chance, however, it happened.

xLashh 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

theotherday said: "because 16% is the percent that 2 scrolls fail, youre forgetting the "if one scroll works and the other doesnt" and u dont know how to add fractions 1/10 + 1/10 = 2/10 *sigh* stupid 3rd graders playing ms nowadays" Lol xD

vl42496 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

jaesang0 said: "it's called bait scrolling and yea it works i got 4 30% helm accs to work on my blue dana before blowing it up w/ a 70% 0.o lol shoulda bait scrolled 70% too (takes too long, only worth it for 30%)" Lies! Its burn scrolling.

SnowyGlow 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

No, because each scroll is an independent event. Think about it this way: When you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance of getting heads and a 50% chance of getting tails. If you flip your coin the first time and get heads, it doesn't affect the outcome of your next flip. You'll still have a 50% chance of getting each outcome regardless of whether you got heads or tails the first time.

sleepyxdude Apr 30 2009 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

1) I suggest you review how to add fractions 2) I also suggest you go over probability again, especially independent events 3) link

peterisnoob 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

The next scroll is an independent event, and should not be included in the probability. The original guess would be correct (.10 x 10^-x)But, after the scroll does work, the outcome changes

DiGiT 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Experimental probability.

21donkey 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

Law of averages

superswanton 04/30/09 + PM | QUOTE | PERMALINK | REPORT

i guess each scroll has their own outcome of passing, 60 percent means 60 percent but when you put 2 scrolls together, the chances decrease not for each scroll to pass but for both of them to pass.